I'm Sam Jones, I'm using my experience (17 years in betting) and sport knowledge to BET SMART !
In football betting, like in the business world, there are no shortcuts to easy profits – at least not in the long run.
I'm using the SMART method to get the profit in the long run.
My SMART method - searching for value to bet on underdogs only !
In the long-run, it's easier to win betting on the underdog,most people prefer to bet on the 'better' team, the one that will probably win the game. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued.
After my long experience, I can say 100%- there is no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home.
Why people bet on the favorite even when the spread favors the underdog?
-- bettors consistently overestimate favorites;
-- bettors like to bet on favorites anyway;
-- bookies recognize this, and are willing to allow more bets on favorites to increase their expected profits (despite the extra risk).
How to know when to bet on underdogs?
It's not just about betting on underdogs, it's about calculating expected value!
If you bet every time on a match with probability 65/35 on the 35, when the chance of winning for the 35 team was actually 50/50, in the long run, you will earn more than you lose, and that is the essence of value betting.
The betting odds will always be lower for the favourite of course, since the bookmakers expect the underdog to lose, and the favourite to win. Psychologists state there is a kind of ingrained mentality to root for the favourite, since we want to avoid the shame of losing – along with losing our money one would assume. The bookmakers are well aware of this phenomenon, so they adjust the odds even more to the favourite. Because of this there is great value in betting on the underdog. Obviously they are less likely to win, but with such competitively high odds your takings may well be substantial. If the favourite wins you might pocket what you bet, and very little more – but if the underdog wins you may do very well indeed.